FIGHTER AIRCRAFT MARKET

FIGHTER AIRCRAFT MARKET REPORT 2009

Mise à jour 2009/Defenceiq/ division of IQPC

The World Market for Fighter Aircraft is valued at $164 Billion over the next decade by Forecast
International. This is based on production of 3,345 aircraft.
Aside from traditional tasks such as defensive and offensive counter air missions, today’s fighters are
increasingly required to be accomplished at providing close air support and strike capabilities as well
as contributing to intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) efforts.
To justify their great expense, fighter programmes have had to adapt to these new requirements.
The Eurofighter Typhoon and Lockheed Martin F‐22 Raptor, both designed purely for air superiority,
are undergoing a series of upgrades to ensure they retain their relevance in modern conflict
scenarios. More so than any other type of military aircraft, the fighter has been required to become
a jack of all trades while ensuring it remains master of its core tasks.
The future structure of the USAF’s fighter fleet is currently one of the key issues facing the Pentagon
and the new administration of US President Barack Obama, with the White House looking to reduce
its defence budget while simultaneously remaining engaged in two foreign theatres.

U.S. FIGHTER TYPES
F‐15C/D EAGLE
The Air Force plans to retain 178 F‐15C ‘Golden Eagles’, all selected for their youth, health and
maintenance history. All 178 ‘Golden Eagles’ will receive the APG‐63(V)3 AESA radar, which has
more modes, greater range and higher reliability than earlier sets. An initial 16 Eagles are to be
upgraded, starting from early 2009.
Following the recent grounding, due to structural failure, the future of the F‐15 became more
uncertain. Retirement of older and structurally unsound aircraft is likely to speed up, while the
select few ‘Golden Eagles’ are upgraded to ensure effective service until 2025. There are currently
around 440 A through D models in the USAF’s inventory.
Boeing decided last September to launch the F‐15 “Silent Eagle” unveiled on the 17th March 2009 in
St Louis, Missouri. At first arbitrarily named “Project Monty”, the effort involved a small team of 50
Boeing engineers, who secretly started modifying the company‐owned F‐15E test‐bed with a
distinctive new V‐tail and adapting a conformal fuel tank as an internal weapons bay.

A flying demonstrator is scheduled in the first quarter of 2010 to start evaluating aerodynamic
qualities, to include firing a missile from the aircraft’s newly acquired internal weapons bay.
Candidates for the F‐15SE include Israel, Japan, Saudia Arabia and Singapore.
The Silent Eagle is aimed at international customers more likely to use it for defensive, counter‐air
missions, rather than offensive strikes in defended airspace where all‐aspect stealth is necessary for
survival.
Another key feature of the F‐15E is its new EW system. Boeing has selected BAE Systems’ digital
electronic warfare system design, which includes a digital radar warning receiver (RWR), digital
jamming transmitter, integrated countermeasures dispensers and an interference cancellation
system. It estimates the design’s unit cost including airframe, spares and training at $100 million.
F‐15E STRIKE EAGLE
F‐15Es have been upgraded many times in the past and are subject to continuous upgrades to
ensure service until 2035. From October 2008, Strike Eagles were scheduled to receive Joint Helmet‐
Mounted Cueing Systems, to be installed on 145 aircraft by December 2010.
F‐16C/D FIGHTING FALCON
Although Lockheed Martin delivered the last USAF F‐16 in March 2005, production continues for
foreign nations (e.g. Morocco has 24 on order) and is guaranteed to last until at least 2010. Over
2,800 are in service with 22 countries. Various upgrades have been implemented and more are
planned.
F/A‐22 RAPTOR
U.S. Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, has announced the end of production for the F‐22 Raptor.
Only 4 more aircraft are to be built beyond the 183 already purchased, bringing in the fleet to a final
total of 187, to be produced through 2011. So far, Lockheed Martin has delivered 127 Raptors to the
Air Force. One reason for the end of production is costs: the unit price has been escalating since the
programme began. It currently sits at $191 million, although the cost is nearly double if research
and development funding is taken into account.
The US Air Force is investigating the cause of the first fatal accident involving the F‐22. Assigned to
the service’s 411th Flight Test Squadron at Edwards AFB, California, the Raptor crashed on the 25th
March 2009, killing Lockheed test pilot David Cooley.
F/A‐18E/F SUPER HORNET
The Navy plans to order 545 F/A‐18E single‐seat and F/A‐18F two‐seat aircraft, though if the F‐35C
Joint Strike Fighter is delayed, this total could rise to a maximum of 785. The U.S. DoD plans to
purchase 31 F/A‐18E/F Super Hornets in FY2010, which will be combined with the 29 aircraft the
USN has already ordered to create a multi‐year procurement programme and help fill the gap in the
navy’s tactical fighters.
The aircraft has limited ‘affordable’ stealth features, such as saw‐toothed doors and panels and

diamond‐shaped air intakes, but the aircraft relies mostly on a sophisticated self‐defence suite for
survival. From April 2003, the Advanced Targeting Forward‐Looking Infra‐red (ATFLIR) pod became a
common sight under the Super Hornet, to replace three pods previously used for targeting and
navigation. Other pods include the Navy’s Shared Reconnaissance Pod (SHARP), and the Litening AT
Advanced Targeting pod for the US Marine Corps. In 2013, the jet will receive an Infra‐Red Search
and Track (IRST) sensor for air‐to‐air targeting, which will be mounted in an external fuel tank.
F‐35 JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER
The future of the USAF’s fighter fleet is primarily focused upon the Joint Strike Fighter. The
programme, currently valued at just short of USD300 billion, will provide 1,763 conventional take‐off
F‐35s for the air force along with 680 F‐35B short take‐off/vertical landing and F‐35C carrier variant
aircraft for the US Maine Corps and US Navy (USN). The programme will replace the F‐16, A‐10,
legacy F/A‐18 and AV‐8B with a single family of aircraft. U.S. Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates
announced plans to increase purchases of the F‐35 from just 14 in FY09 to 30 in FY10. Funding
would increase from USD6.8 billion to USD11.2 billion
However, The programme could be facing up to three years of delays and $7.4 billion in cost
overruns, according to a recent report by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO). The F‐35
Joint Programme Office (JPO) recently reported a new $2.4 billion overrun to the GAO, but the
GAO’s own “joint estimating team” puts this value at $7.4 billion. Key differences between the
estimates include the agency predicting that the JSF will require about 2,700h of flight testing for its
mission systems, 1,000h more than the JPO’s figure; and the latter’s failure to list the $1.4 billion
required to develop the aircraft’s alternate General Electric/Rolls‐Royce F136 engine.
The UK has kept its commitment to the F‐35 programme despite massive pressure on its
procurement budget, signing in March 2009 for 3 production aircraft to participate in initial
operational test and evaluation (IOT&E) of the fifth‐generation fighter.
Signed by defence secretary John Hutton during an 18 March visit to Washington DC, the deal will
see the UK take delivery of its test‐instrumented short take‐off and vertical landing F‐35Bs during
2011‐12, with aircraft to be drawn from the JSF programme’s third low‐rate initial production batch.
To be acquired through the U.K. MoD’s Joint Combat Aircraft (JCA) project, the UK’s future
operational fleet of F‐35Bs will replace its current BAE Systems Harrier GR7/9s, which are operated
by the Royal Air Force/ Royal Navy Joint Force Harrier organisation. Up to 138 of the aircraft may be
purchased if the customer is happy with the results of initial test work.
However, It seems likely that the JCA programme will be much smaller than the 138‐aircraft buy that
was once expected, and smaller even than the force of 82‐85 aircraft that has been reported. Some
insiders believe that there will be just 2 JCA squadrons (and perhaps 2 Royal Navy units) to replace
the 4 Harrier units, with 2 further 8‐aircraft JCA squadrons following later.

NON‐U.S. FIGHTER TYPES
RAFALE
Although officially the French Delegation Generale pour l’Armement (DGA) maintains a requirement

for 294 Rafales (234 for the air force), the government’s June 2008 defence White Paper cast doubts
over this figure.
The document outlined plans to decrease the number of combat aircraft across both the navy and
air force down to a mix of 300 Rafales and upgraded Mirage 2000Ds. Given that the DGA has
previously announced plans to upgrade at least 50 Mirages under a mid‐life upgrade (MLU)
programme, it now appears possible that the Rafale order may be limited to 250 platforms at the
most.
Despite this, the programme continues to make progress, with the DGA announcing in September
2008 that France will receive 14 new Rafales and will place orders for an additional 60 in 2009,
taking the total on order to 143. This news was followed two months later by a Thales
announcement that the active electronically scanned array (AESA) version of the Rafale’s RBE2 radar
had successfully completed its development phase and was ready to enter limited production for the
F3‐standard Rafale, the first of which will be delivered this year.
The Rafale also remains involved in several key fighter procurement contests around the world.
Alongside contesting the high‐profile competition in Brazil, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has
been energetic in his attempts to market the type during a recent tour of the Middle East. Libya and
the United Arab Emirates are also viewed as key prospects following a narrow miss in Morocco
where the Lockheed Martin F‐16C/D was selected at the last minute in June 2008.
GRIPEN
In Sweden, production of the Saab JAS 39 Gripen C/D continues with aircraft for South Africa and
Thailand following the completion of deliveries of new‐build aircraft to the Swedish Air Force in
December 2008. Alongside the 26 South African and 6 Thai aircraft, Saab is also rebuilding 31
Swedish Gripen A/B aircraft to the C/D standard. The line is expected to come to an end in 2012
unless further orders can be secured.
There are currently three key short‐term prospects for keeping the Gripen line open in Brazil (36‐120
aircraft), India (126) and Switzerland (22‐30).
Other opportunities in Denmark and the Netherlands exist, although both countries are widely
expected to follow Norway and maintain their commitment to the Lockheed Martin F‐35 Joint Strike
Fighter programme. The contests in Croatia (12) and Romania (24‐48) are now subject to significant
delay due to the impact of the global financial crisis in both countries.
As part of a re‐orientation of Sweden’s armed forces, the number of Gripens in service in Sweden
will be reduced from the current total of around 135 aircraft down to 100 platforms by 2012.
A contract was signed on 17th October 2007 between Saab and Sweden’s Forsvarets Materielverk
(FMV – Defence Materiel Administration) to upgrade 31 early model Swedish Air Force JAS 39A/B
Gripen fighters to the very latest C/D standard. Additionally, the contract included a formal order
for the Gripen demonstrator programme and development of a new Gripen flight test aircraft and
avionics rig. The new demonstrator will include an increased thrust Volvo Aero F414G engine, active
electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, increased range, new undercarriage, increased weapons
and stores capabilities and enhanced avionics structures. Saab has reportedly evaluated four

possible AESA radars for the aircraft (three of them from Raytheon, Selex and Thales), and a decision
on which will be tested in the aircraft is expected by the end of this year. Investment in the
demonstrator programme is being made by Saab, its international industrial partners, and potential
customers. Already, some one billion Swedish kronor ($155 million) has been invested in
development by Saab and other companies. Norway also signed a Letter of Agreement on the 26th
April 2007 to be involved in future Gripen development .
EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON
In the U.K., an air defence force that comprised 7 Tornado F3 units and 4 squadrons of F‐4 Phantom
IIs at the end of the Cold War has been reduced to just 4 squadrons, 2 with Typhoons (Nos 3 and 11)
and 2 with Tornado F3s (Nos 43 and 111).
It has long been determined that a minimum of 5 squadrons are required to maintain Quick Reaction
Alert (QRA) commitments and to defend the Falklands, although air defence insiders suggest that
this figure is not really sufficient to deal with the present elevated level of QRA activity. With just 4
front‐line units currently available, the Typhoon Operational Conversion Unit (OCU) is playing a vital
part in manning commitments such as QRA, but there is little additional capacity to allow the
Typhoon to exercise its air‐to‐ground and swing‐role capabilities.
Under current plans, the Tornado F3 will retire in 2011 (its out‐of‐service date extended from 2009),
although it seems most unlikely that there will be 2 further Typhoon squadron operational by then.
To be able to assume the UK defence role properly, and to be able to train and deploy in the air‐toground
role, there will need to be more than 5 Typhoon squadrons. The full 3‐Tranche, 232‐aircraft
Typhoon buy was intended to provide 137 active aircraft equipping 7 front‐line squadrons (15
aircraft each, plus 4 in the Falklands), an OCU with 24 aircraft, and an Operational Evaluation Unit
with 4 aircraft. These units were also intended to share 9 further aircraft categorized as in‐use
reserves (1 per squadron and 2 with the OCU).
Although no official statements have been made for some years on Typhoon procurement beyond
Tranche 2, the dropping of RAF Leeming as a potential Typhoon base might suggest that the overall
order will be reduced, and that the RAF will receive no more than 5 Typhoon squadrons – 2 at RAF
Coningsby and 3 at RAF Leuchars.
In terms of exports, the first of 72 Tranche 2 Typhoons destined for the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF)
made its first flight in October 2008 and is due to be handed over by the end of June 2009.
Rumours persist of a potential follow‐on order as the RSAF replaces its ageing inventories of F‐15C/D
and F‐5E fighters with additional Typhoons, possibly through aircraft diverted from the UK’s Tranche
3 allocation. They will face stiff competition from Boeing, which has already offered new enhanced
F‐15SA (Saudi Advanced) Strike Eagles and an upgrade of the current F‐15S inventory to this
standard.
Negotiations on the final third tranche continue with Italy and the UK wavering on their commitment
to their full 46 and 88 aircraft allocations respectively. Other members of the Eurofighter consortium
have planned the following; Germany (180); Italy (121) and Spain (87). Export orders so far include
Saudi Arabia (72) and Austria (15).

CHINESE J‐10/J‐11
China’s fighter aircraft production capabilities have made significant progress over recent years. The
indigenously developed Chengdu J‐10 and Shenyang J‐11B combat aircraft are in service with the
People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
Since entering service in 2003 around 100 J‐10s are believed to have been delivered to at least 4
PLAAF regiments, with a total of up to 300 eventually expected to enter service.
The first export contract for the type is expected soon with Pakistan set to acquire 36 J‐10s.
The J‐11B is ostensibly a variant of the J‐11 (itself the domestically manufactured variant of the
Russian Sukhoi Su‐27SK) designed to enhance the J‐11s multi‐role capabilities.
Initial deliveries to the PLAAF have already taken place although as yet there does not appear to be a
fully equipped regiment.
Beyond these efforts China is pursuing the development of a fifth‐generation fighter aircraft under
the notional title of J‐XX, which was first identified by the US Office of Naval Intelligence in the late
1990s.
RUSSIAN MIG‐29/MIG‐31/SU‐27/35
Russian state media reports in February 2009 revealed that the MiG‐29 fleet, which accounts for
around a third of the Russian air force’s total fighter numbers, had been grounded since December
2008 following a crash involving the type in Siberia. Subsequent inspections of around 200 aircraft
have led to around 90 MiG‐29s being withdrawn from service pending possible repairs.
Upgrades to the MiG‐31 and Su‐27 fleets have made painfully slow progress over recent years, while
long‐term negotiations over upgrades to the MiG‐29 fleet have yet to result in a contract.
Two key fighter programmes – the Sukhoi Su‐35BM and the fifth‐generation PAKFA (Persepktivnnyi
Aviatsionnyi Kompleks Frontovoi Aviatsyi, or Future Air System for Tactical Air Forces) – do appear to
be making progress. The Su‐35BM, which will be acquired as a bridging capability until the PAKFA
enters service, is essentially a modernised variant of the Su‐27. Flight‐testing of 2 aircraft is currently
under way in Russia with a third platform expected to join the test programme by the end of 2009.
Sukhoi officials have repeatedly stated that the first aircraft will be delivered to the air force in 2011,
with 100 test‐flights conducted on the type so far. Longer‐term plans revolve around the Sukhoi
PAKFA programme. Company officials maintain that the aircraft will make its first flight this year.
The aircraft is expected to enter service between 2015 and 2017.

FUTURE EUROPEAN FIGHTERS
As European manufacturers begin to focus on the development of unmanned combat aerial vehicles
(UCAVs) such as BAE Systems’ Taranis and the pan‐European Neuron designed purely around the
strike mission, for the first time since fighter production began almost a century ago, Europe is set to
be without an active jet fighter production line by 2020.